Atlantic Canada’s Electricity Future – Discussion Series Part III: Electricity Costs

The Atlantica Centre for Energy has developed a series of discussion papers on the future of electricity in Atlantic Canada during the transition to net zero by 2050. The purpose of the third discussion paper, Atlantic Canada’s Electricity Future – Discussion Series Part III: Electricity Costs, is to help Atlantic Canadians better understand how changing federal and provincial regulations, as well as consumer behaviors, will likely result in increased electricity prices across the Atlantic provinces relative to today. This paper uses publicly available federal data through the Canada Energy Regulator’s Canada’s Energy Future 2021 report.

The Canada’s Energy Future 2021 forecasts are not likely accurate because they are missing many important federal and provincial policies that have been developed since August 2021 when the report’s assumptions were finalized. These important omissions (in the Evolving Policies Scenario) include; not phasing out coal-fired electricity generation by 2030, not phasing out other unabated fossil fuel generation by 2035, and not reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

It is also important to understand the electricity prices included in the report for 2021 are higher than those delivered by the utilities.

After reading the first, second and third discussion papers in this series, it is increasingly clear federal and provincial policies and regulations have significant impacts on the supply, demand, and cost of electricity across Atlantic Canada. Regulations and policies balance emission reduction goals with affordable pathways to ensure energy can be as affordable as possible for residents and businesses. It is also important for the federal government to share better data with the public outlining how regulatory changes will impact the lives of Atlantic Canadians and local businesses on the path to net zero. You can read the Centre’s additional recommendations on page 19 of the discussion paper.

While this third discussion paper is the last in this series, the Atlantica Centre for Energy will continue to research and share opinion on federal and provincial regulations and policies as they relate to the clean energy transition.

Read all three discussion documents in the Atlantic Canada’s Electricity Future Series:

Discussion Series Part III: Electricity Costs

Discussion Series Part II: Electricity Demand

Discussion Series Part 1: Electricity Supply

Are you concerned about Atlantic Canada’s future electricity costs? Do you have feedback to share on the forecasts in this discussion paper?