Commentary by Michelle Robichaud, President of Atlantica Centre for Energy

The annual New England Canada Business Council’s Executive Energy Conference is a must-attend event for those looking to connect with the decision makers in the Northeastern United States and Canadian energy sectors.

This year, Atlantic Canada was featured prominently on the agenda starting off with the opening panel featuring: Laura Lee Langley, President, Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency (ACOA); Peter Gregg, President & CEO, Nova Scotia Power; Gary Murray, President & CEO, Newfoundland Power; Brad Coady, Vice President, Business Development & Strategic Partnerships, NB Power; and, the panel was moderated by Joe Curtatone, President, The Alliance for Climate Transition (ACT).

The focus of the discussion was how Atlantic Canada values its relationships with the Northeastern United States and a provided an overview of plans to expand the electricity grid with onshore and offshore wind, hydro resources and nuclear, while stressing the importance of the interconnectedness in the region.

My big take away from this panel were statements outlining that there is no way to affordably and reliably make the transition to clean energy as individual as provinces or states. Instead, we need to take advantage of the interties and plan inter-regionally to optimize the grid. This solution was repeated from the podium on several occasions throughout the rest of the conference.

Key Themes:

Throughout the 2-day event, the audience frequently heard the words affordability, risk and pace. These concepts are not new to energy transition discussions on either side of the border. What was new was the framing of these terms.

  • Risk:

There is an apparent risk around integrating thousands of megawatts of new renewable energy such as wind and solar generation using dispatchable sources that are coming from further and further away. It was also emphasized that the role of natural gas is fundamental to an affordable energy transition by providing dispatchable firm capacity needed for peaking.

James Robb from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) had an interesting presentation about the hyper-complex risk environment for utilities. He re-acknowledged the existing grid is not set up to deal with the level of renewables being added to the system because of the need for surplus flexible generation to stabilize intermittency.

Other important risk factors include extreme weather such as heat and cold, in addition to severe weather events. Massive load growth with the addition of data centres, population growth and electrification add even more complexity. One other issue utilities are now dealing with is extremism and violence targeting critical infrastructure.

NERC assesses the risk of the energy systems and is now considering that these systems need to shift planning from a short-term peak capacity to having that peak capacity available 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

  • Affordability:

These significant risks for utilities amplify existing concerns about energy affordability, especially the need to significantly expand and modernize the electrical transmission network.

  • Pace:

It seems like the region is also making progress on speeding up or creating a more efficient permitting process to help develop energy projects. These projects still take too long to develop to meet our emission reduction goals, but with Indigenous economic reconciliation, regulated timelines, and one-window applications, the region is moving in the right direction.

However, demand is increasing faster than the pace of the energy system expansion, so there will be challenges ahead.

Food for Thought:

A new term that I learned was the German word, Dunkelflaute. According to Wikipedia, this term ’dark doldrums’ or ‘dark wind lull’, is a period of time in which little or no energy can be generated with wind and solar power, because there is neither wind nor sunlight. In meteorology, this is known as anticyclonic gloom.  It was also referred to as a ‘blackout on wind and sun.’

So, even with the addition of massive amounts of renewable energy to the grid, back up for the inevitability of a Dunkelflaute is now a necessity.

Possible Solutions:

In order to get to the scale necessary to enable an effective transition to cleaner energy, it was suggested that electrical utilities consider regularly scheduled and frequent RFPs for new generation. The predictable nature of the calls, especially for nascent sectors such as off-shore wind, would influence investor interest, develop a robust supply chain, and retain a trained consistent workforce, which helps keep costs lower for all projects.

It was also suggested for energy sector leaders to look regionally for opportunities to collaborate and optimize regional energy systems by forecasting 15 to 20 years into the future, and not just through single political cycles. Provincial and state utilities must share more information to allow for this planning to be effective.

Political Uncertainty:

Always a highlight of the event is the political panel, which did not disappoint this year. The four panelists: Mason Hamilton of American Petroleum Institute (API); Monica Gattinger of University of Ottawa; William J. Pristanski of Prospectus Associates; and, Fred Lowther of Blank Rome, provided key insights into the current political landscape in the US and Canada.

Against a backdrop of a looming recession for the first time in 40 years, Americans voted for a President that acknowledged the affects of intense inflation. It was suggested that there will be additional unrest with the new government forming in January.

North of the U.S. border, Canada is in a similarly uncertain time, with the exception of the widespread dislike for the current Prime Minister. Whether Canadians head to the polls this month or in 6 months from now, the outcome is likely to be a new government. The panelists debated what energy policies will stay or go under a new conservative government including whether ‘axe the tax’ means just the consumer carbon price or taxes associated with industrial carbon emissions as well.

Closing Thoughts:

As a participant, this was probably the most realistic conference I’ve been to recently, where the panelists weren’t all sunshine and roses or just lamenting about policy and politics.

There were frank discussions about the need for governments and customers to acknowledge looming significant and persistent electricity rate increases. Increasing the pace of developing the transmission system, integrating gas into grid planning, information sharing and regional cooperation, are the only ways to a smooth transition to cleaner energy sources in a time of increasing risks.

The full agenda and speakers can be found on the NECBC website.

Photo credit: Michael Pizziferri