Insights on energy supply, pricing, and opportunities across Atlantic Canada.

 

Overview:

Atlantic Canada faces some of the highest natural gas prices in the world during winter months, a situation driven reliance on imports through a constrained system(in the United States). That was the central message from industry leaders at the 2025 Natural Gas Forum, hosted by the Atlantica Centre for Energy.

The event brought together stakeholders from across the region, including natural gas producers, consumers, traders, policymakers and pipeline operators, for a comprehensive discussion on market conditions, supply limitations and evolving opportunities in New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nova Scotia.

 

Market forecast for Atlantic Canada and the U.S. Northeast.

The Forum opened with a market outlook from Todd McDonald, CEO of Energy Atlantica, an energy trading company based in Halifax, Nova Scotia. McDonald works with 80–100 counterparties, including major industrial users, giving him a frontline view of regional energy pressures.

McDonald noted that less than 4% of the marketable natural gas used in Atlantic Canada is produced locally. This forces the region to import nearly all its supply at relatively high prices, despite having potential to develop natural gas domestically. There remains an uncertain social license to develop local gas resources, especially in the Maritimes, and bans still in place in some areas.  Daily prices can swing from $3.50 USD to $45 USD, making planning extremely difficult for businesses to plan and remain competitive. Forward prices are similarly unstable, with January often sitting around $18 USD before dropping to $4 USD by April.

He pointed to the region’s dependence on a single major pipeline connecting to New Brunswick through the United States and an uncertain regulatory environment as discouraging to long-term investment. “It’s difficult to get additional gas into the region,” he said, adding that several pipelines serving the main U.S. hubs operate near capacity and are difficult to expand, while others, like the Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline, which connects Canada to the supply, have spare capacity that cannot be used without additional firm supply reaching the system.

Liquified natural gas currently imported through Saint John LNG adds some flexibility, but McDonald noted that processing, shipping and storage costs make LNG a significantly more expensive option, despite the underutilized infrastructure in place.

Overall, the market outlook painted a challenging picture where industrial growth in Atlantic Canada may be limited as natural gas supply and prices are limitations in the near-term.

 

Supply growth potential through the Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline

Mike Whalen, Director of the Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline (M&NP) explained that the region’s main pipeline is not the core problem. M&NP is a 600-km, 30-inch line natural gas pipeline originally designed to send Sable offshore gas from Nova Scotia to Boston; today, gas flows north to supply customers in the Maritimes.

Whalen clarified how pipeline capacity works: it depends on pressure, diameter, and delivery points; capacity does not double when diameter doubles. Gas moves through the system at roughly 10 km/h, and newer pipelines, like M&NP, can operate at higher pressures. Firm transportation is guaranteed year-round, while interruptible transportation is a premium, short-term, best-effort service.

Historically, flow rates during the Sable era exported up toroughly 500,000 MMBtu/day. Today, the system imports approximately 150,000–200,000 MMBtu/day. Expansion is possible; capacity could double in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick by adding compressor stations without laying new pipe. However, this expansion is irrelevant unless additional firm gas can reach the M&NP line.

“We have a robust system with cheap expandability,” Whalen said, “but it remains underutilized because we cannot get incremental firm gas to the system.”

 

Panel: Provincial natural gas resources and infrastructure updates

A panel featuring representatives from Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia provided a snapshot of natural resource developments and challenges in each province. The Government of Prince Edward Island participated on the webinar but did not make a presentation.

Newfoundland and Labrador:

Nena Abundo, Executive Director of Oil and Gas with the Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Energy and Mines, highlighted the province’s substantial offshore gas potential. NL has produced 2.4 billion barrels of oil to date, with another 3 billion barrels remaining in reserves. Offshore mapping shows significant natural gas reserves in the same region. A new provincial government has committed to revitalizing the offshore sector by shortening timelines, strengthening federal partnerships and developing a 10-year energy plan with plans to develop natural gas exports. Abundo noted that although there are no LNG export projects currently in operation, companies are evaluating new development hubs, including concepts involving a 450-kilometre subsea pipeline.

New Brunswick:

Tom Howard, Manager of Petroleum Resource Development and the Provincial Petroleum Engineer for New Brunswick, presented an overview of the province’s onshore natural gas reserves. Several regions, including McCully, Hillsborough, Stoney Creek, the Moncton Basin and the Elgin shale formation, contain proven or promising gas resources. However, a province-wide hydraulic fracturing moratorium remains in place, except for an exemption area around the McCully where some seasonal development continues.

Nova Scotia:

Michael Bird, Director of Operations and Engineering with the Nova Scotia Department of Energy, discussed the province’s reliance on natural gas for grid stability and the economic pressures created by high energy costs. Nova Scotia repealed its high-volume hydraulic fracturing ban in 2025 and is now modernizing its regulatory framework with a strong focus on Indigenous engagement. The offshore regulator currently has 13 parcels open for exploration bids, and Nova Scotia is working to improve investor confidence in the sector after years of industry retreat following the shutdown of the Sable and Deep Panuke offshore fields.

 

Exploring a role for Atlantic Canada in Europe’s LNG market

The final presentation was delivered by Dennis Trigylidas, the Senior Advisor for Energy Infrastructure in the Fuels Sector at Natural Resources Canada. This presentation focused on Europe’s shifting LNG needs. European gas prices remain above levels before the Russian invasion into Ukraine. Europe is reducing its reliance on Russian natural gas, replacing those imports largely with LNG from the United States and Middle East.

A ban on Russian LNG imports takes effect in January 2027, increasing the need for reliable alternative suppliers with strong emissions standards. Europe is increasingly seeking low-carbon LNG and suppliers with clear emissions-intensity reporting, reflecting its climate goals and regulatory direction, like Canada, provides an advantage due to its low emissions intensity and electrified LNG operations.

Canada is already the fifth-largest natural gas producer and will become a top global LNG exporter as West coast projects expand. While East coast LNG would offer shorter shipping times to Europe, proposed projects, such as Marinvest Energy (QC), First Peoples Pipeline and LNG (MB) and Energy Fermeuse (NL), still lack strong equity backers and require infrastructure investments in new pipelines.

There was debate around the potential to export LNG to Europe from the Maritimes, given existing supply constraints. However, the possibility to export LNG from offshore Newfoundland and Labrador or Nova Scotia may reduce supply challenges.

 

Concluding thoughts

Overall, the 2025 Natural Gas Forum painted a picture of a region with natural gas supply and cost challenges today, but with significant potential in the future. Atlantic Canada has local resources, a capable pipeline system and emerging policy momentum, yet faces high costs, infrastructure constraints and unresolved concerns social license in some areas.

Speakers and Atlantica staff agreed that natural gas will remain essential to Atlantic Canada’s economic stability and competitiveness. Natural gas will also be important to help maintain a reliability while reducing emissions in the electricity sector. Whether the region can secure a more affordable and reliable supply will depend on long-term planning, coordinated regulatory reform and the ability to attract new investment into both onshore and offshore development.